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Sunday, March 13, 2011

First of Four Storms Arrives Today

Slide Mountain has had just shy of 400 inches of snow this year. I believe there is a significant chance that they could top 500 within the next couple of weeks. A series of strong to moderate storms is approaching the area which will bring winter back for what could be two weeks, or longer. Let's start with the 3 storms coming this week:

Tonight through Tomorrow:
This is the weakest of the storms but should still pack a pretty decent punch as there is plenty of associated moisture. Expect 1-2 feet at the higher elevations and 3-6 inches at lake level. Here is the GFS look for early tomorrow morning. This will not affect the leeward valleys with anything but very strong winds:


Tuesday Night Through Wednesday
This is a much stronger storm and has been well advertised. The models are in a agreement with this storm and it should bring significant snow above 7,500 feet in the  Sierra around Tahoe. This storm starts out warm and the NWS service is worried about heavy rain falling on the snow pack, below 7,500. By Wednesday it should be all snow. Here is GFS forecast for early Wednesday morning:


That upper band of moisture will join up with the lower one and this storm should last around 30-36 hours.

Friday and Saturday
The models are not in agreement on this one, entirely. However, EC has a significant storm coming to Tahoe next Saturday, GFS says it comes Friday and is not quite as strong. Here is a look at EC for next Saturday:


Thursday March 24th
GFS see's another significant storm coming our way a week from Thursday. The long range models are not terribly reliable this time of year, but could be something to look forward to:


84 Hour Moisture Chart
Below is the NAM look at moisture for the next 84 hours. There is a potential of 4-6 inches of liquid precip and this is not including Saturday's potential large storm (if EC is correct). In all, the potential exists for another 6-12 inches of liquid precip in the next 2 weeks. That would translate into over 100 inches of snow above 7,500 feet which would .... allow Slide Mountain to top 500 inches!




Stay Tuned ...

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