Long Range Outlook
Ok friends, normally when I receive a bunch of mail, I do nothing. However, after yesterday's forecast it would appear that many other forecasters are in disagreement with myself. Truth be told, I lean heavily on the ECMWF model. That is the European model. It has a much larger budget than the North American models and I believe it is much more accurate, especially long term. Rarely, will I post a forecast without a graphic backing up what I am saying. When GFS and ECMWF are in agreement, then I post with great confidence. There are, however, some anomalies taking place that are unprecedented. We were suppose to slip into a La Nina pattern. However, the typhoon season on the other side of the Pacific sent Kelvin Waves that basically wiped out La Nina. In fact, there is at least a possibility that El Nino could come back. Paul Huntington has been all over this since September. He believes that the models are not reflecting what he is seeing as of yet. Remember, Paul has been