The models have backed off a drastic pattern shift for next week, however there is a slow shift coming. Next week should bring in a pretty decent storm Monday and Tuesday with at least a foot of snow for the Sierra. The bigger shift will come later in the month as a number of indicators should allow the jet to move storms back through our area. If you live in the east, the massive cold front will break down and finally move on. That should open the door for weather to change in our area too.
Truly amazing is our current pattern as the massive ridge to the SW and massive storm to the NW have not moved in about 10 days. Everything is just stuck. That should change, but it won't happen for at least another week and probably closer to two weeks. That means crap air for the valley with more deep inversions and weak pockets of energy coming through about every 4 days.
The air down there is terrible right now. However, tomorrow should clear at least some of it out as a weak trough will slide through our area and produce barely enough wind to start to change out the air.
The is an El Nino year, however it is not taking on the classic shape. This is our big storm time of year and we are missing it. Most long range forecasters are predicting a drastic change in the 2nd half of January and then moving forward a very stormy spring. NOAA, however, has the PNA very positive almost through the month of January which is contrary to these types of predictions.
Who know what will happen, certainly not me ... but when I get it figured out, I will update the blog.