The Perfect Storm III

First let me say that today's storm has gained strength and moisture. Should be a decent snow event for the Sierra, including the Carson Range. I guess about 18 inches will fall up at Rose. All snow, despite the high levels. This will be all rain for the valley. That should melt most of the remainder of the snow and start to open the golf courses again.

Let's talk about next week. If the weather models have it right, this could be the stormiest week I have ever seen since moving here. There are storms literally stacked up for 10 days. Pineapple express? Perhaps.

Let's take a little closer look. First, the PNA is moving negative. This is a sure sign of conditions being ripe for stormy weather. Here is the latest NOAA run:

The following are GFS predictions for next week, please notice the days:

Monday (1/18)

Late Tuesday (1/19)


 Early Thursday (1/21)

Early Saturday (1/23)

 Sunday Afternoon (1/24)

Tuesday Morning (1/25)

I could keep going but do not want to look more than 15 days down the road. The models will oftentimes over predict, which we saw in Mid December.

Having said that, I have never seen precipitation forecasts quite like this. The storms are coming in right over Lake Tahoe. California is going to get battered up and down the coast. Precipitation amounts could be in the 30 inch range over 10 days. That translates to ... I don't even want to say it, but I will ... 300+ inches of snow.

If you are a surfer, the waves should be epic. Scottie M, wax up that water board, dude!

Now having passed on the word of the models, the expert long range forecasters all over the country are hopping on this one. I received this email from my brother today. He is based in Omaha, NE and is an oil trader. Weather is critical in his business, especially in California. This email was sent to him by one of his meteorologists. Here is the crux of the email:
All -

First - sorry for any repeats. Chris Smallcomb of NWS Reno has posted
the following
about the long-term forecasts for next week (week of Jan 18th). Very
and fits with some local messages I sent last week and also a madweather
post yesterday.

Random observations from a night shift...

Looking at the recent EC/GFS/GEFS data, there's a high probability the
west is gonna get slammed with several big storms next week.  Models and
EPS data are in remarkable agreement as these forecast lengths.  Very
reminiscent of the 13 Oct 2009 and 04 January 2008 events, both were
major storms predicted nearly a week in advance.  Will be interesting to
see how this plays out.  A few images included below...

Chris Smallcomb


I mentioned a later start to winter and that El Nino would not hit full strength until late January in earlier blogs. Make no mistake, this is an El Nino driven event and could be a snapshot of what we may see for the remainder of the winter. NOAA is still predicting much above average precip for the season and we are well below right now.

Stay tuned ... I will keep a close eye on this. Suffice it to say, next week might be a good week for vacation!