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Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Snowy December is in the Cards

As the current storm continues to provide on again off again moisture, I wanted to take a look at our next opportunity for mountain snow. It looks like a weak to moderate system will move in from the west and come inland to our area in about a week. Here is the EC weather forecast for the middle of next week, around Thanksgiving day:




The potential exists for a similar event to what we are experiencing now.

We are still on track for what looks like a series of large storms for our area starting around the December 9th. Here is a long term forecast for late on the 9th of December:


This is a much larger storm than anything we have seen this year. It is projected to make shore in Washington and send heavy precip all the way down the coast to from Northern Washington to Southern California.

Three days later around the 12th or 13th of December a smaller system is being projected to come into our area with an ample precip tap:


A few days later another storm comes into the area:


Then a few days after that, around the 18th of December a super storm appears to have the potential of coming into our area:


What does all this mean? Can a forecast this far out hold any merit whatsoever? In a word, Yes! What the models are saying is that conditions are turning very ripe for large, wet storms to come into our area and pummel us with copious amounts of snow. We are due for this and it will be a very welcome change in the weather patterns.

In that same period of time we are looking at 8-20 inches of liquid precipitation. How much snow is anybody's guess. Generally, these large storms tap into the sub-tropical jet, which means warmer storms. So the snow levels and amount of cold air will determine how much snow the Sierra will get in the next month. I am guessing we are looking at about 12 feet of snow between December 9th and December 20th.

Of course things can change. I will keep an eye on this weather pattern and report accordingly.

Stay Tuned ...


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