The latest model runs are in pretty good agreement that this next series of systems, brought in by a split jet-stream that looks to be putting Tahoe in the cross-hairs, should bring some good precip. The big benefactor here will be the Carson Range and Slide Mtn in particular. Snow levels will vary, but it looks like all snow at 8,000 and above. The timing of the systems starts late tomorrow afternoon and lasts through Thursday with on again, off again snow for the Sierra.
These storms are weak, but are packing some serious moisture. Some models have 1.5 inches of liquid precip. I believe Slide Mountain will pick up between 12-18 inches of snow (at the top) by Friday morning. Depending on altitude, some areas on the west side of the lake could see 2 feet or more. Hey, better than nothing.
Here is a look at the NAM weather model and what we can expect in the way of liquid precip:
A small area of 2-2.5 inches west of the Lake. Around 1 inch for the Carson range. I believe those totals are low because of the moisture plume these systems have to work with, we will see.
Now let's look a little down the road, because that is what we do here. I just looked at the EC long range forecast for our area and it looks pretty good ... for the first time all year it looks pretty good. Here it is, this is the 30-day total liquid precip:
We are looking around 10 inches of liquid precip. If that is all snow, we can expect about 10 feet in the next 30 days ... of course this is a long range forecast and is subject to change, but here is something we can look forward to. Although I must say, my golf game is pretty darn good. Hard to put away the sticks, but I had my board tuned 2 weeks ago and have it in my office reminding me of what is to come!
Since I have really gone out on a limb here, let's take it one step further. We have this little system starting to build base. The next chance looks like the end of the month. However, the real heavy stuff comes in around the 10th of December.
Stay Tuned ...