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Monday, November 4, 2013

Changes Coming For Next Week, Maybe

Ok, that extended golf season I promised did not disappoint. We had a beautiful stretch of weather that looks like it will come to an abrupt halt with the seasons first major winter storm next week. First I will talk about the storm or storms, and then I will caution you as I am only showing the GFS model.

Late next Monday the fun will begin with a cutoff low moving precip into our area. Here is a look at the GFS forecast for next Monday evening:


This is a weaker system, but it is ushering in what I believe will be a major change to our weather pattern. The real fun gets going late next week, somewhere around the 14th or 15th of November as a major storm moves down the coast and taps into some real decent moisture. Here is a look for the morning of Friday November 15:


As always, not all the news is good. I have two concerns. First, the EC weather model is late in seeing this development. I believe it will fall into line, but as of yet it is calling for 2 inches of liquid precip. There are a number of reasons I like the GFS on this one. The EC model that I looked at only goes 10 days out and has trouble after one week. The GFS goes out 16 days and this is in the middle of its forecast range.

My other concern is the trajectory of the storm. I believe we are looking at snow levels around 8,000 feet. This moisture tap is coming from the south and is warm and plentiful.

I am also starting to hear some chatter at other weather outlooks, albeit very quiet chatter. That is a good sign as my colleagues get paid to get it right, I don't get paid so I can look way out and bring what I see to  you. If my forecast is wrong ... you get what you pay for!

I will be keeping a close eye on this one.

Stay Tuned ...

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