Is There Anything To Look Forward To?

The first time all year the models were leaning toward a winter storm. As quickly as they forecast it, they changed the forecast. This has been a very slow start to the year. The chance of anything decent being open by Thanksgiving looks very bleak.

The next chance for the storm machine to get cranking comes on or about November 26th. However, the 30 day precip model is not terribly optimistic for any major storms coming between now and the 2nd week in December although it is looking at some moderate precip between November 26th and December 5th.

Here is a look at the total precip forecast for the next 30 days, almost all of this comes after the 26th:


You can see the storms will be creeping up on us, however the EC model (shown here) believes most precip will be to our north and west, where they will pick up 10+ inches of the liquid stuff. For our area we are looking at between 2-5 inches and that is being very optimistic. Couple that with seasonally warm temperatures and you see the slow start continues.

As for some of the love letters I have received since the last post; if you want only 100% accurate forecasts, see your bible. Or, if you want to know what happened today and what might happen tonight, see any of the plethora of other sites or local weather forecasters. This site is dedicated to looking long range and will continue to do so. When I make a 30 day forecast, please take that with a grain of salt. Chances are you won't get it anywhere else and chances are it will probably not be 100% accurate!

I will continue to look out and see if some indicators (MJO, PNA, AO) start to turn favorable. This requires patience but we will have to see if once that storm machine gets cranking, and it will, if it stays cranking throughout the year. Until then, hit em straight!

Stay Tuned ...

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