Models Trending Upward for Precip over the next 3 Days; Long Range Looking Good

Checking the latest run of the EC weather model, I notice that it is trending upward for precip potential for Saturday afternoon's storm (see last post). Here is an updated look; seems the wave has a little more moisture to work with:


We are now looking for up to 2 inches at the Crest and perhaps half that in the Carson Range. Snow levels are a bit tricky, but I think anything above 7,500 will be all snow. As the front passes through snow levels could drop to the valley floor. However, no valley accumulation is expected. Just as a disclaimer, the NWS is not seeing this and is predicting a dusting to 2 inches at the Crest and a whiff for the Carson Range. I guess we will see as I am looking at 2 feet at the Crest and probably a good foot of snow on Slide Mountain (and maybe more) by Sunday afternoon.

Fantasy Forecast
I have been watching the EC 30 Day weather model, which surprisingly is in disagreement with their Deterministic (10 Day) weather model. The Long Range has a series of very large storms spinning up and bringing what could be copious amounts of moisture to Tahoe. The first of the large storms comes just after Thanksgiving. This storm is centered just off the coast of Washington state and its outer rings tap into a decent moisture plume. Remember, the deterministic does not see this at all so it could be just a fantasy. The following shows the forecast for Friday November 28th around 4:00 pm:


Apparently the Monthly Control Model is seeing something, let's hope it nuts this one.

Stay Tuned ...

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