The culprit (for our nice weather), as usual, is the high pressure ridge which is setup just off the California Coast. There are indications that we could slide that ridge south and allow the storms to start to effect our area. Here is a current look at our weather. Notice the high pressure ridge and how it is blocking any storms from our area:
Here is a look at the middle of next week, notice how the ridge has slid south opening the door for at least some storm activity:
Right now, the storm on tap for next Thursday looks like it will weaken as it approaches the Sierra. However it could hang around for a couple of days and it is still 6 days out so a lot can change. Here is a look at very early on Thursday:
A new feature on the Tahoe Weather Blog is the fantasy forecast. Each post I will show what the ECMWF weather model is forecasting in the way of 30-day precipitation. Although this chart changes rather frequently, it is something to look forward to. Remember, however, this is just a fantasy forecast. Right now the model is still showing a very stormy period beginning around the 27th of November, picking up strength and lasting through at least the 7th of December. During that period we are looking at perhaps 5+ inches of liquid precip.
What I really like about this chart is the entire state of California is going to start to see some weather. This is a typical El Nino pattern as Southern California will get really wet. We all know they can use the rain! Stay Tuned ...