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Friday, November 28, 2014

Storm Delayed, Models Show Weakening

The large storm that I talked about last post is being delayed, heavy traffic out in the Pacific. However, we are still in for a stormy 5-7 days starting tomorrow around noon. Several waves are poised to come in and hit us before the main storm makes its way to us on Tuesday of next week. Here is a look at the forecast for late Tuesday night:


Here is a look at the total liquid precip being forecast through next Wednesday:


If you read my last post you will see the forecast has decreased the amount of total precip, Especially for the Carson Range as this storm will be Shadowed by the western Crest to a certain degree. However, by next Wednesday, most Tahoe ski areas should have much more snow to work with, I would say upwards of 3 feet. Again, Mt. Rose with it's high base should make out well. This storm will come in warm and as the cold front moves through, snow levels will plummet. I would say all snow above 7,500 feet.

Looking further down the road, I am tracking two very strong storms coming out of the Gulf of Alaska. These storms have the potential bring in some serious precip, especially if we force our traditional ridge a little further south and tap into some moisture. Here is a look at late next weekend, notice the two storms to our north and west:


I am going to stick to my guns and continue to say we are do for some real winter weather. Conditions appear to be very good in the near and long term.

Fantasy Forecast
For what it is worth, here is what we are looking at for total precip in the next 3-4 weeks:


This has not been very reliable, but again for those of you who understand just how unreliable weather models are more than 3 days out, this at least gives you a look at what they are saying.

Stay Tuned ...

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