Get Ready, here it comes. A strong storm will move out of the Western Pacific Ocean and make landfall. This storm will produce very heavy winds. For more details, see my last post. Snow totals I believe are right inline despite the models moving this storm a bit quicker (18-36 inches for Carson Range, 36-60 inches for crest). The NWS has moved their precip totals up, perhaps they read my last post (just kidding). Look for the event to be very intense from late tomorrow morning through Saturday evening.
I do not see the lifts at Mt. Rose being open tomorrow as 100mph winds are expected to accompany this storm. I believe once the leading edge has moved through, that the winds will decrease slightly. Hopefully enough to open the Slide Side on Saturday. Disclaimer, winds can be very tricky to predict especially with a storm that has this much moisture. Moisture can lead to rain friction and decrease winds substantially.
Looking ahead, our persistent ridge of high pressure, which never leaves but has been pushed around quite a bit this year is going to move in and dry us out, at least according to most of the models. So the big storm I had on tap for next Wednesday looks to be a small short wave that will squeeze into our area as the bigger storms move north. Yes, north! Some El Nino, huh? Our storms are being fueled by conditions in the tropical Pacific, but not nearly to the extent we had hoped for, especially in Southern California.
As our weather pattern shifts away from our westerly flow, we will be drying out. The first map below is the pattern for tomorrow. Tahoe is highlighted in blue:
The storm track is coming right through us. However, notice the ridge of high pressure to our south. The models have this ridge moving north and parking right off the California coast. Here is a look at the pattern for next week:
Notice how the storms are located both north and south. The El Nino fueled storms are going to take an abrupt turn north and die out. That turn will take place at 140w and have little effect on our weather.
Having said that, this is still 5 days away, let's not carve this in stone just yet. There are some very powerful storms that have an element of unpredictability.
Stay Tuned ...