As Major Change to Weather Pattern Takes Hold, Expect Large Storms Over Next Several Weeks

The change we talked about for the last 3 weeks is starting to take hold. The first major storm is knocking on the door. We will keep our forecasts the same. However, this storm is really pulling up very warm, sub-tropical air and snow levels will start out around or even above 8,000 feet. By the time it is all said and done, however, we still believe the Carson Range and Mt. Rose in particular will pick up 18-36 of very wet snow.

Warm air will then come in and take over before two very large storms will produce more major weather events, starting around the 15th. We will focus on the long range forecast. This current storm is being covered by the NWS and other outlets, we like to focus on what is coming down the road. Remember, we forecast 10+ inches of liquid for the month of January. Right now that forecast looks pretty good.

Here is a look a the forecast for mid-day on January 15th:


This is another very similar storm to what we are getting now. I think the possibility does exist, however, for slightly lower snow levels as this storm will not dig quite as deep into sub-tropical moisture. We expect this event to last for around 36 hours. Then, as soon as this storm clears out, around the early morning hours of the 18th we are looking at this:



We expect snow levels to drop a bit more with this storm. This one is very interesting as we will have quite a collision of warm and cold air.

The three storms (today, 15th, 18th) we are forecasting to produce around 9 inches of liquid precipitation. Again, the winner in all of this will be Mt. Rose with it's 8k base. However, like last year, these are very warm storms and predicting snow levels is very challenging to say the least.

Of course regardless of the snow levels, we have had a very dry start to this winter. These 3 storms and any storms that follow should bring us closer to our average precip, which is always a good thing.

It has been mentioned that we need the precip to stem the fire season somewhat. However, contrary to popular belief,  heavy rainy season precip, generally means a more active fire season. There are many factors involved, but heavy precip means lots of new growth. When the dry season comes, that growth dies and becomes fuel to start wild fires. This past year, heavy precip and a catastrophic fire season are living proof that major rains do not necessarily mean less fires and in fact, usually mean more fires.

Stay Tuned ...

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