When will the Storms Start Again?
Every weather outlet, including the NWS, is talking about warm, dry weather into the foreseeable future. In fact, last week at this time we talked about the very same thing. However, as we all know, the weather will change.
We see that change coming late in the first week of February and a larger storm around the 11th - 13th of February. The possibility does exist of a more significant storm coming our way around the 22nd of February.
Although high pressure will continue to build in behind these storms, we see a pretty average February in store as several storms will knock that high pressure out to sea and bring snow to the Sierra.
In fact the European (most reliable) long range model, which was more accurate in January than it's sister Deterministic model see's this for precip in the first 3 weeks of February:
Most of the Sierra picks up 10+ inches of liquid. Because we are getting later in the season, there is a greater shadow effect, but we see the Carson Range in the 8-10 inches.
Impossible to predict the warmth of these storms until we get closer to their arrival.
For you Skiers and Riders, something to think about and hope for! We are now predicting about 70% of average snowfall for this winter, which when you consider last year's 250% aint all that bad. Unfortunately, that is the way ma nature works; too much snow last year, not enough this year!
For you powder hounds, Sven wrote an incredibly elegant article after this last storm, we highly encourage you to check it out:
Unofficial Mt. Rose - THE ILLIMITABLE JOY OF SNOW
Stay Tuned ...
We see that change coming late in the first week of February and a larger storm around the 11th - 13th of February. The possibility does exist of a more significant storm coming our way around the 22nd of February.
Although high pressure will continue to build in behind these storms, we see a pretty average February in store as several storms will knock that high pressure out to sea and bring snow to the Sierra.
In fact the European (most reliable) long range model, which was more accurate in January than it's sister Deterministic model see's this for precip in the first 3 weeks of February:
Most of the Sierra picks up 10+ inches of liquid. Because we are getting later in the season, there is a greater shadow effect, but we see the Carson Range in the 8-10 inches.
Impossible to predict the warmth of these storms until we get closer to their arrival.
For you Skiers and Riders, something to think about and hope for! We are now predicting about 70% of average snowfall for this winter, which when you consider last year's 250% aint all that bad. Unfortunately, that is the way ma nature works; too much snow last year, not enough this year!
For you powder hounds, Sven wrote an incredibly elegant article after this last storm, we highly encourage you to check it out:
Unofficial Mt. Rose - THE ILLIMITABLE JOY OF SNOW
Stay Tuned ...