Major Pattern Shift Begins Wednesday Night

We have been locked under this coastal ridge of high pressure for weeks now, but as with all things related to weather that is about to change. The change begins slowly on Wednesday night with a weak system coming from the south. Although this system has plenty of moisture to work with, it is too weak to expect anything of significance.

We are much more impressed with what starts around Friday at noon and could last up to 30 hours: Here is the forecast for early Friday Morning:

Again, this is another weaker system, but does have some potential for precip.

Both these system are going to be very warm with snow levels starting around 8,000 feet or possibly slightly lower. Mt. Rose will probably be the big winner again.

We are tracking a storm for just over a week from now that looks very positive. It has cold air, energy and moisture with which to work. Usually that combination can usher in much needed heavy snow for the Sierra. Here is a look at the forecast model for a week from Tuesday:

So we have 3 systems coming our way. The first two are warm and fairly weak. They could bring up to a foot of snow to the Carson Range, but probably closer to 6 inches. Then, the next system is larger and could bring in the 2-3 foot range. Here is a look at the 10 day liquid precip forecast:

Looking out for the entire month of January, I see the storm pattern continuing. We are the only weather outlet making this prediction, but the long range models that we trust are definitely pointing to continued and stronger storms and we move through January. Here is the long range forecast for total precip in the month of January:

If this holds true we are looking at the 10+ inches of liquid precip by months end.

Stay Tuned ...


  1. Hope its a sign of very wet February and spring through April to. We need that well through spring to shrink the fire season as much as possible.

    1. Oftentimes the more precip the worse the fire season. You see the problem with the west is that we have a rainy and dry season. The more precip we get the greater the growth of tinder from which fires are fueled. When the dry season comes all that new growth from the moisture dries up and eventually burns. One of the worst fire seasons in California history followed record rain totals (last year). Of course there are more variables, but this one plays a big role.


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