Tahoe Weather Blog

This has been the slowest start to winter in the Northern Sierra in the last 40 years. That makes it historic. However, Ma Nature does not deliver precipitation in evenly spaced events. Instead, she messes with us. Just when we are thinking the ski season is lost .... BOOM ... she delivers historic storms! Or so it seems. The good news is that this historically slow start to winter is about to come an abrupt end. The pattern will begin to change mid-week, around the 17th. We are going to get a series of storms that will be progressively larger than the previous ... just like old times! Here is a synopsis: Wednesday December 17th This is a weak storm but it is just the beginning. We have a couple of strong storms, especially to the North that will take that ridge of high pressure and move it South. Friday December 19th This is a much stronger storm with a great moisture connection to the subtropical Pacific. What we really like about this ensemble is that it is going to stall and bring ...

For you skiers and riders, we are continually looking for storms. Because this is a long range weather forecasting service, most of you are depending on us to let you know when this historical dry and warm period will come to a screeching halt. Suffice it to say, it will come to a screeching halt. Let's start with the near term as we have a couple of weak storms that will make it into our area in about a week: Clearly the storms are growing in size. Our problem is the persistent ridge in the Jet Stream that is forcing everything north.  That appears to be at least weakening.The storms for the week of the 14th are not game changing they are showing a change in the pattern. Then around the 19th of December we finally have a decent precipitation event. It will still be warm, but should be all snow for Mt. Rose: Again, not a game changer but further evidence that winter will be arriving, just late. Speaking of winter, the solstice comes up the 21st of December and our days start gettin...

 Here is what we have been looking at for most of November and all of December: A huge ridge in the Jet Stream is sending storms well north of us and well north of the US. Of course we know this cannot last forever and Ma Nature oftentimes comes back with a vengeance. Although we are not seeing any storms in particular for Tahoe, the storms are beginning to move further south into the Pacific NW as the pattern slowly changes We are looking at the pattern shifting in about 9 days. After that we are hoping a few big storms spin up and set their sights on Tahoe, until then, do your rain dance! Stay Tuned ...

We just looked at the latest model run of the ECMWF. It does not look good for the skiers and riders.  First, we have a weak system coming in for Thursday: This is also a pretty warm system. Snow levels will hover between 7,000 and 8,000 feet. That will be all snow for Mt. Rose and we will take it. This last storm did what we thought and delivered between 1-2 feet which will give their snowmaking a good kickstart. This next storm looks like 3-5 inches of snow. Looking at the weather through the remainder of November, it looks like above average temperatures and dry. There are a few slider systems that will bring some cold air in, but only temporarily. I have looked at the monthly as well. Usually, we do not have to look that far out, but the models are predicting an extended dry period lasting into December. Sorry, no other way to put that. Having said that, the models have been changing on a daily basis. I find it hard to believe we will be dry for that long and will continue sear...

What looked like a very predictable storm coming out of the Gulf of Alaska is proving to be quite baffling to the weather models. Here is what we expect for now: Today (11/13) - Storm has moved on shore but there is a strong rain shadow. Mt. Rose will be kept away from the precip until later tonight. The leeward valleys could pick up some precip (all rain) early tomorrow morning. Snow levels will be greater than 8,000 feet. Tomorrow (11/14) - Storm moves out of the area by mid morning. The air remains very warm. Saturday (11/15) - Storm does an about face and moves back north by late Saturday night. Still very warm with snow levels over 8,000 feet. Sunday (11/16) - Storm is kicked out by a cold front from the north. Temperatures begin to drop. Monday (11/17) - Cold front comes through and snow levels fall to around 6,000 feet. Thursday (11/20) - Another storm comes in from the west. This storm is cooler and snow levels will be below 7,000 feet. That is what we are seeing. To sum it all...

The storm that is on tap for Thursday should bring around 12-18 inches of snow to Mt. Rose by Friday morning. Let's hope it overachieves as we do not see any major storms in the next several weeks.  Here is the forecast for Thursday, mid-morning: Snow levels will start around 8,000 and then drop down to around 5,800 as the cold front moves through. Here is the precip forecast for the event: Looking ahead, temperatures will be much cooler, below seasonal averages. The possibility for a pattern change could arrive just before Thanksgiving, but that is still too far out to forecast. Stay Tuned ...

We have a fast moving, cold storm steaming down the coast that will bring cold, snowy, rainy and windy weather to the mountains and valleys around Tahoe. Here is the forecast for 10am tomorrow morning: You can see a decent moisture tail. Unfortunately as this thing moves inland it will fall apart. Snow levels look to be around 7,500 feet with maybe 6-12 inches in the Carson Range. We are tracking a storm with much better potential for the 13th: This storm is still fast moving but should bring colder air and lower snow levels as we begin to work on a base at the ski resorts. We are hoping for 1-2 feet and possibly more. Of course this is still 9 days off. Around this time we will see much cooler weather heading into the holiday. Our hope is a large storm toward the end of the month beginning of November to really solidify the base. Stay Tuned ...

The rainy season does not start for 3 weeks. However, we have storm coming to Tahoe for Monday and Tuesday. Here is the forecast for early Tuesday morning: Of course this will be a warmer storm, but expect snow above 9,000 feet and in some areas along the Sierra Crest that snow will be heavy. Our temperatures will quickly recover and much of that snow will end up melting because the sun is still very strong this time of year. Most of the leeward valleys will be shadowed out so do not expect any heavy rain in Reno or Carson. We are not seeing any major weather events for the next several weeks after this storm. Seasonal Outlook What will this winter bring? Of course trying to predict this is always crap shoot. We live in Nevada so why not? Surprisingly our predictions have been within 5% the last 6 years (look it up!). The first thing we look at is the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO. Right now we are in a neutral ENSO. However, that will most likely transition to La Nina starting ...

Storms this time of year are usually weak. We have one more storm knocking on the door for the final weekend at Mt. Rose. This storm is not strong, and could produce up to a foot of snow, but most likely in the 6 inch range. It should get rolling very early tomorrow (4/26) and snow on and off for about 24 hours. I do not see any really heavy periods of snow, but this storm could deliver a surprise. Here is the forecast for late tomorrow night. You can clearly see there is not much to this storm. One thing it will bring is much cooler air. Ironically all around the storm is very warm air which makes forecasting a bit tricky. We would be remiss not to say that this storm will move our season snowfall to slightly above average. That is exactly what we expected and forecast back in early November. In all likelihood this will be our final post of the season. Take care!

The two storms that we talked about in our last post have literally joined forces and we have seen a decent snow event for quite a few days. This is not done. Monday should bring a very snowy day. Tomorrow (3/16) will bring light snow to begin with and very strong winds and then heavier snow late in the evening. Here is a look at the forecast for Monday early morning: More snow heading our way. This will be all snow for Mt. Rose as a cold front moves down from the Pacific NW. We are currently not seeing any more major events through the end of March. However, this next storm should bring 1-3 feet of additional snow for Mt. Rose. Here is the precipitation forecast through Tuesday: Stay Tuned ...

We have a couple of storms that will come through this week that should produce quite a bit of snow for the Sierra. The first storm will come through very cold Wednesday morning and stick around for about 24 hours. There will be a period of very heavy snow for the Sierra and Carson Range. We will get a short reprieve from Thursday afternoon through most of Friday, then a larger storm moves in. This will be a warmer storm, but will bring all snow to the Carson Range. Some of the lower elevations of the Sierra could see some rain with this one. Here is the forecast for very late on Saturday night (3/15): The forecasted snow totals for these two storms are pretty impressive. This additional snow will move our season total to above average. Stay Tuned ...

The current storm has certainly over performed and will continue to do so with possible snow in the valley tonight (3/5).  However, that is not the storm we are watching. Next week could usher in a much bigger storm with a decent moisture tap. The fun should get going late on the 10th and last through the 12th. The 12th should bring heavy snow to the Carson range for quite a few hours: This storm will be on the colder side and should all snow to most Tahoe resorts. We are thinking about 30 hours of snow, with 12 hours of heavy snow before this storm moves on. After that, our temps will remain below seasonal averages. Then around the 17th of March we could be looking at another decent storm. This storm is also on the colder side and should be bring mostly snow to Tahoe resorts. The ECMWF is predicting pretty good snow amounts. We are thinking 2-4 feet by the 20th of this month. Stay Tuned ...

After a fantastic first 3 weeks of February, we have enjoyed some beautiful weather. That is going to change, however. We have a storm coming in for late Saturday and Sunday. This is not some giant storm, but it will bring some snow to the Carson Range, in the neighborhood of 2-6 inches. This will also bring in much cooler air. Then on Wednesday (3/5) we have another small system coming in with a reenforcing cold front: ' After this system, high pressure and warm, spring like air will move in for the next 5 days. Then around the 11th of March we could be looking at a major pattern change: Our most reliable model is predicting another one of those atmospheric river type systems.  Here is the precip forecast for the next 2 weeks. Most of this comes in during the 2nd week: When it is dry, we go storm hunting. The 11th is still quite a ways off, but something to possibly look forward to. Finally, we wanted to say goodbye to a true Northern Nevada landmark. Lone Eagle Grille, albeit ver...

 We have a very minor storm that will just graze us tomorrow. Possibly 2-6 inches for Mt. Rose: High Pressure will setup off the California coast and push everything north. Behind all that is some very warm air for Tahoe and especially the Nevada leeward valleys of Reno and Carson. We could be looking at near 70 degrees by the weekend into next week! No major storms in sight for now! Stay Tuned ...

A cold and impressive system is poised to hit Thursday (2/13). The system has plenty of moisture and will bring snow to the mountains and leeward valleys. Here is the forecast for all day Thursday: Here is what we are looking at for total moisture: We are looking at 1-3 feet of snow for Mt. Rose. There is certainly a potential for more, but the models have over predicted all year and we adjusted our snow amounts down. The following week will bring a big warm up and we are not seeing any significant precipitation for at least the following 10 days after Thursday. Stay Tuned ...

One last wave is heading our way, which will be the end of this storm cycle. Yes, it underachieved, but by the time all is said and done, Mt. Rose will have picked up nearly 5 feet of fresh snow, which should allow them to open the remaining terrain, including the world famous Chutes. Here is the forecast for late this afternoon (2/6). Again all snow for Mt. Rose. After Friday (2/7) we will see a dry period that will last until late next week. Right now the GFS is predicting this for Thursday (2/13) After this next storm, expect cooler temperatures. Stay Tuned ...

Part 1 of our first big storm of the season is over. Part 2 starts tonight. The first part of this storm has been somewhat disappointing in light of what the models were predicting. Shows how little we know and how mother nature is the one in charge and she can do whatever she wants. We are hoping that Part 2 overachieves. Here is the timing: Early Tomorrow Morning (2/4) Late Tomorrow Night (2/4) Thursday Afternoon (2/6)  Here is the Precipitation forecast for the final act of this storm, we are thinking in the neighborhood of 2-3 additional feet of snow for Slide Mountain. Part 2 is cooler than part one which means all snow. Stay Tuned ...

As the weather models converge, we are looking at a major weather event. Three storms will eventually have a party right over the Tahoe area. They will bring hurricane force winds and heavy precipitation. The party starts tomorrow night (Thursday 1/30). First, let's take a look at the GFS weather model's precipitation forecast for the next 9 days: If you zoom in on that image, you will see some brown specs around the Western Sierra Crest. That represents somewhere between 25 and 35 inches of liquid precipitation. Above 8,000 feet, on the Crest, over the next week or so, the Sierra could see 30 feet of snow.  You can see there is major spillover too. The Carson Range will see between 10 and 20 feet of snow. The Mt. Rose Chutes could be open (if the storms let up a little) by this time next week. Here is some timing. The major stuff starts on Friday afternoon. Read our previous post about snow levels. We are looking at near constant precipitation through the following Tuesday (2/...

We will see a very quick warming trend. The culprit is the leading edge of two storms. Those two storms are going to become one and bring heavy rain and snow to the Tahoe Area. A storm from North will drop down Friday morning (1/31): Earlier, the models were predicting very cold weather. Since then a larger storm, born in the sub-tropics will begin to dominate our weather. This storm will send very warm air up through Tahoe and combine with the Northern storm to create a rather intense period of precipitation. Another atmospheric river is headed to Northern California. Here is a look at the forecast for the first day of February. As can clearly be seen, we have a major moisture tap and that will bring even warmer and wetter air to the area.   Mt. Rose will be on the rain/snow line for a portion of this storm. It will start with snow levels around 6,500 feet. Those snow levels will rise through the day on Saturday and could get to 9,000 feet by Sunday. That means rain for half of sl...