Our two storms are quickly turning into the three storms. One is poised to come into our area tonight, then another late Thursday and another early Saturday. Tonight's storm will last well into tomorrow and we will get a very short break prior to the Thursday night event. Here is a look at the updated precip totals through Friday, this does not include Saturday's event which may be the biggest of them all:
This forecast by the NAM weather model has some areas of the western Sierra picking up 10+ inches of liquid precip. This truly is a gigantic event for this time of year. All the mountain areas should pick up a minimum of 3-6 inches with the Carson Range probably hovering around the 4 inch mark by end of day Friday. These storms will start cold and then tap into sub tropical moisture which will raise snow levels from 5,500 feet to near 8,000 feet. Again, this is very difficult to predict and the NWS has been all over the board on this.
Carson Range Tonight
The weakest of the storms that is seeing significant shadowing for the leeward valleys is tonight's, however the potential does exist for nature to throw us another curve ball and spill more moisture into the area. I am now lowering my prediction for the Carson Range to 6-14 inches by late Wednesday.
The valleys will see very little precip from tonights storm, but will pick up good rain Friday and Saturday ... there is a chance that as the cold front pushes through, the rain could turn to snow on Saturday. Depending on the timing the valley's could see 2-4 inches of the white stuff and the foothills about double that. Again, this is so hard to forecast and my gut tells me all rain for the valley and a few inches for the foothills. Be aware, however, the NWS is saying a chance exists for a snow event in Reno/Carson for Saturday.
We will get a short break before the storm machine turns back on toward the middle of next week. The central and southern Sierra could be in for some weather. These storms will have a huge corridor to move down the coast and could pass west of us instead of giving us the proverbial bullseye that we will see this week. That, however, is still a ways off.
Stay Tuned ...