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Saturday, March 24, 2012

Storm Door Opened Too Wide For This, Stormy Week Ahead

First let me apologize for my absence. The day job keeps getting in the way. You may notice no advertisement on this website ... there will never be any. Therefore, unfortunately, I have to find gainful employment elsewhere. If there was going to be a major dump this weekend, I would have been on it. As it is, the storm door opened just too wide. That allowed the storm to dig south down the coast and go right past us. Recall that the blocking ridge of high pressure, which was responsible for our dry fall and early winter, needs to be in just the right place. What has happened this weekend, is the ridge has moved too far south and west. However, the good news is that Southern California will get some much needed rain. I believe by end of day Monday, the Carson Range should get another 3-5 inches of snow.

Take a look. The first picture is our current conditions. Notice how far west and south the ridge of high pressure is. With no blocking, the storms can move straight down the coast. There is nothing to force them inland over our area.

Current Conditions

That is about to change. That change should bring on a rather stormy week and possibly stormy next weekend as conditions begin to ripen for our area again. First, take a look at the chart for Tuesday. Notice the ridge of high pressure has moved off the So. Cal coast. That is going to force the storms to move inland, right over our area. In addition there does appear to be an adequate moisture tap for a decent event coming on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning:

Tuesday's Chart - Notice Blocking Ridge to South
Here is a look at the forecast for Tuesday night. Again this storm has adequate moisture to work with:

Tuesday Night Wednesday Morning
There are a series of storms that are lined up in the Pacific. If we keep our current pattern, we should be in for a very stormy 7-10 days. Here is a look at next Friday March 30th:

Friday March 30th

Again blocking ridge to the south and adequate moisture. Right now with Tuesday's storm, we are looking at all snow for all Tahoe Ski Areas. However, there could be another shadowing factor for the Carson Range, we will have to see.

How much moisture? That is a very good question. Right now the moisture forecast does not appear to be in line with the storm forecast. We are looking at 2-3 inches through next weekend (liquid precip) for the Carson Range and 5-10 inches of liquid precip for the Western Crest. However, I think that will change.

Of course none of this has happened yet. Spring is a notoriously difficult time to forecast weather. However conditions appear to be near perfect for a series of storms. I will keep a close eye on this and report accordingly.

Stay Tuned ...

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