We have been discussing this for a few weeks now. Currently we are in between systems, but that will change starting tonight for the Western Sierra.
Storm One Tuesday night through Wednesday
The first big system will bring heavy snow to the Tahoe area. The snow levels can be variable but the local NWS is talking about 7,000 feet. This moisture is coming from the sub-tropics which means two things. 1. Lots of it. 2. Less predictable snow levels. Here is a look at the EC forecast for late Tuesday into early Wednesday:
There is a large moisture tap for this wave and the Sierra will see copious amounts of snow. Most of the precip for the Carson range will fall on Wednesday, but there should be a large band of snow to dump between 12 and 18 inches ... or maybe more, at Mt. Rose Tuesday and Wednesday.
Storm Two Friday/Saturday/Sunday
The exact timing of this event is still up in the air. It looks like it will start Friday afternoon and wind up early Sunday morning. This storm is the larger of the two and again will dump massive amounts of snow in the Sierra and Carson Range this weekend. Just to be fair, here is the GFS look for late Saturday night:
The NWS service is still talking about snow levels starting at 7,000 feet and dropping throughout the event. However this warm moist air makes those predictions tenuous at best. I will continue to update throughout the week as conditions warrant. The conventional wisdom for this storm is 3+ feet in the Western Sierra and very close to that amount in the Carson Range. This is still a ways off, so keep an eye on this blog for updates.
Currently it looks like the Reno Valley will pick up some good rain from both of these systems. They need it to say the least. The total amount of precip for the eastern valleys could exceed 1 inch by Sunday morning. I see very little if any shadowing affect for the Carson range. These storm are strong and moisture rich.
I am tracking another storm for early next week that is also looking very good. I will talk about that in subsequent posts. Here is the EC precip forecast through next week. This includes both storms this week and the storm I am tracking for next week. Most areas are in the 5+ inch range of liquid precip. Some areas of the Sierra and possibly the Carson range could pick up closer to 10+ inches.
Finally, I am not seeing any signs of this pattern changing. There is an excellent chance by months end we may have caught up with our seasonal precip averages. Remember, there is no normal, only averages.
Stay Tuned ...