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Wednesday, December 15, 2010

You Aint Seen Nothin Yet

Mt. Rose picked up close to 2 feet of fresh snow on Tuesday. If you think that was good wait until this weekend. All the elements are coming together for a dump that should last from Friday through Tuesday and could bring as much as .... dare I say it?? ... 6-14 additional feet of snow over the Sierra Crest.

In my last post I showed you a chart of why I am (everybody else has hopped on the bandwagon, where were they 2 weeks ago?) expecting heavy snow. Not much has changed, the cold low pressure system is making it's way down the coast from the Gulf of Alaska. It is already starting to tap into sub-tropical, warm, moist air. This is a lethal connection as this storm will form, rise and dump over the entire Sierra, all of California, and the western Nevada valleys. The following chart shows just what we can expect by Tuesday night:


In the Central Sierra, the GFS weather model is forecasting over 10 inches of liquid precipitation. Most of Tahoe is in the 3-8 inch range and the Leeward Valley's of Western Nevada should pick up 2-4 inches of rain. These are staggering numbers.

Currently, the NWS is predicting fairly high snow levels of 7,500 to 8,000 feet. However, the low dropping down the coast is bringing quite a bit of cold air to the party and I am hoping that those levels are around 6,500 to 7,000 feet.

If you are traveling or skiing here is the timing as I see it:

4:00pm Friday - First band comes in
10:00pm Friday - Heavy snow moves into Tahoe and Lasts through Sunday Afternoon
10:00pm Sunday - We get about a 20 hour break
6:00pm Monday - Heavy snow moves into area and lasts through Tuesday
10:00am Tuesday - Very Very Very Heavy snow moves in and lasts through most of the day

Here is a look at Tuesday morning (Dec. 21):



After Tuesday, the party aint over. I am tracking a couple of weaker storms that should move into the area on Wednesday through Friday. I will talk more about them in the next post.

Stay tuned ...

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