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Monday, December 27, 2010

Storm Update

Strong Storm Hold Together
The storm I talked about for the 30th is coming a day or two early. Of course I talked about this before Christmas, so I am pleased that things have held together. This is shaping up to be a big storm with several feet for the Tahoe and surrounding areas. Tuesday night and Wednesday morning could be an all out blizzard on top of the mountain. A very cold, large area of Low Pressure is moving out of the Gulf (of Alaska) and down the coast. A huge moisture plume that stretches beyond Hawaii will collide with this arctic air mass. The storm will tap into the moisture and send it right over the Sierra. This is similar to another Pineapple express event. Unfortunately, our cold Low Pressure system is going to make shore in Oregon and move out of the area relatively fast. The entire event will be over by the end of Wednesday. Behind the low is some very cold air. Our temps will plummet, the conditions on the mountain should be near perfect for the remainder of the week. BTW, it was near perfect today in the Slide bowl. Here is a composite of what we can expect:

Here is GFS for late Tuesday night:


Here is a look at the moisture totals over the next 72 hours (EC Model):



Looking Ahead
Looking ahead, which is what we do at TWB ...  The models are all over the place as to what is going to happen next. We have a few models saying we hit another stormy pattern by 1/7/2011. GFS, which is the model that I most rely on, is talking about a stormy pattern a week later on 1/14/2011. NOAA seems to agree with GFS, here is the PNA.

Temperatures will stay below normal for the foreseeable future which should keep ski conditions near perfect for the next couple of weeks. I will keep an eye on when the next storm is coming and report to you as soon as I know!

Stay Tuned ...

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