Has anybody heard if the drought is officially over? Remember my first blog of the season? In that column I warned people not to believe the La Nina hype. I had been hearing that because of La Nina we will have very little snow this winter. Check it out: First Blog This Season.
Anyway, on to the business at hand. The big boys are still arguing over the area that gets pummeled the hardest. I say who cares? Almost the entire state of California is going to get drenched by this series of storms known as the Pineapple Express. The storms will not stop coming until next Wednesday. The first in the series is already here. First, let's take a look at the latest satellite, notice that the line has moved north. I think that it is likely that the southern part of Lake Tahoe is the bullseye:
Next, let's look at what the weather models are predicting for precipitation through next Wednesday:
Finally let's look at the impact these storms will have on the entire state of California. In the coming days, flooding will be big news:
About 90% of California will pick up 3+ inches of rain. At least half the state will pick up 5+ inches of rain. The hardest hit areas are going to get 10+ inches. According to the weather models, Tahoe is in that range.
Snow levels will vary throughout the week. The highest for the Tahoe area will be around 6,500 feet. That means that almost all of the ski resorts will get all snow. Mt. Rose will surely get all snow. By the time this thing is over, look for Rose to pick up an additional 5-8 feet of snow. If things hit just right, that total could be higher.
Late Friday night through Sunday are going to be the windiest days, with top ridge line winds being clocked at 100mph+. That makes for an unbelievable blizzard that you do not want to get caught in.
Latest Timing of Events
Friday 8:00pm - Saturday 2:00pm - Heavy Mountain snow strong winds
Saturday 2:00pm - Sunday 4:00am - Moderate Mountain snow moderate winds
Sunday 4:00am - Monday 12:00am - Heavy Mountain snow strong winds
Monday 12:00am - Tuesday 10:00am - Light to Moderate Mountain snow, moderate to strong winds
Tuesday 10:00am - Wednesday 4:00pm - Very Heavy Mountain snow, moderate winds
Quick Update For Christmas - New Years
There is a possibility that we could get a break. Right now the GFS weather model has a similar scenario setting up late on Christmas eve. However it has the brunt of the storms hitting Northern California and Oregon. That is a change from yesterday and I suspect it will change again. I will keep an eye on this and report accordingly.
Stay Tuned ...