The winter storm that is knocking on our door right now is on track to produce heavy snow for the Lake Tahoe area. For most of Tahoe its arrival will be early tomorrow morning. Amazingly the EC model nutted this thing over a week ago and the timing is nearly perfect. Here is a look at the forecast for early tomorrow morning:
This is a strong storm that is tapping into a subtropical moisture plume. In fact take a look at the satellite right now:
You can see our next storm located off the Oregon and Washington coast. This is a bigger storm and will bring even more snow to Tahoe.
For the Carson Range, this will be all snow above 7000 feet. Snow levels will start there or slightly higher and quickly fall. In addition, the shadowing effect, which has been prevalent for our last few storms, will not be so strong. So I look for heavy snow in the Carson range through next Tuesday. There will be a slight break, but the 2nd storm will arrive Sunday in the early afternoon. Here is a look at that forecast:
Behind this 2nd storm, our high pressure ridge will take over and it will be dry for at least the following 3-5 days.
Here is a total precip forecast:
The Carson range is looking at 3-4 inches of liquid. That could translate to 2-4 feet of snow, depending on the water ratio. Right now I would say about 8-10 to 1. So my best guess for Mt. Rose is 24-32 inches total, by late Tuesday. That should open some terrain.