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Thursday, December 3, 2015

Fast Moving Storm Will Bring Wind, Cold and Snow

This storm that is knocking on the door will be here and gone before you know it. However, there is some moisture associated with this storm that could see snowfall rates around 2 inches per hour for several hours, especially north and west of Lake Tahoe near the Sierra Crest. Shadowing is strong, so precip amounts will be much less for the Carson Range. We could be talking 2 feet for the western crest and about 6-8 inches for the Northern Carson Range.

The good news on several model runs today is it appears next week could bring us a series of shortwave events ending with a warm, wet storm around the 10th of the month. This is a much better solution that what we have been looking at for the last week, and perhaps the long range will pick up on a very fluid weather pattern. One thing is for sure, the Pacific Northwest is going to be exceptionally wet and rainy. Some models are showing 2 feet of liquid precipitation for Washington State over the next 10 days. We are hoping that the pattern, with an emerging MJO to tap into, will shift south into California.

Back to next weeks storms, here is a look at the forecast for the 10th, in the afternoon:


Finally, here is the 10 day precip forecast for the west, notice the rainfall amounts forecast to fall in the Pacific Northwest!


So the question remains, is the pattern changing? One of my researchers from Northern California is very bullish on an emerging pattern that could bring the onset of "100 year" rains. 

Stay Tuned ...

3 comments:

  1. "100 years of rain."

    -Tahoe Weather Blog

    ReplyDelete
  2. "100 Year" Rains. To be clear, that means we get this type of moisture once every 100 years. If you are going to quote the article that is 10 lines above your text, you may want to get it right. I suggest cut and paste next time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Probably should clarify that next time

      Delete