Tahoe Weather Blog

As the weather models converge, we are looking at a major weather event. Three storms will eventually have a party right over the Tahoe area. They will bring hurricane force winds and heavy precipitation. The party starts tomorrow night (Thursday 1/30). First, let's take a look at the GFS weather model's precipitation forecast for the next 9 days: If you zoom in on that image, you will see some brown specs around the Western Sierra Crest. That represents somewhere between 25 and 35 inches of liquid precipitation. Above 8,000 feet, on the Crest, over the next week or so, the Sierra could see 30 feet of snow.  You can see there is major spillover too. The Carson Range will see between 10 and 20 feet of snow. The Mt. Rose Chutes could be open (if the storms let up a little) by this time next week. Here is some timing. The major stuff starts on Friday afternoon. Read our previous post about snow levels. We are looking at near constant precipitation through the following Tuesday (2/...

We will see a very quick warming trend. The culprit is the leading edge of two storms. Those two storms are going to become one and bring heavy rain and snow to the Tahoe Area. A storm from North will drop down Friday morning (1/31): Earlier, the models were predicting very cold weather. Since then a larger storm, born in the sub-tropics will begin to dominate our weather. This storm will send very warm air up through Tahoe and combine with the Northern storm to create a rather intense period of precipitation. Another atmospheric river is headed to Northern California. Here is a look at the forecast for the first day of February. As can clearly be seen, we have a major moisture tap and that will bring even warmer and wetter air to the area.   Mt. Rose will be on the rain/snow line for a portion of this storm. It will start with snow levels around 6,500 feet. Those snow levels will rise through the day on Saturday and could get to 9,000 feet by Sunday. That means rain for half of sl...

After an extremely dry January, February is showing some promise. First a cold front for this weekend. We expect very light snow and much cooler temperatures. Mt. Rose could see up to 3 inches of very light powder. This storm will be gone by Sunday. Temperatures will quickly rebound. Then around the first, another polar plunge will descend on the country. This time we will get a little bigger piece. When that cold air hits the warm air, we could see some weather. The GFS is predicting a pattern change, while the EC is predicting just another cold storm like this weekend. However, the storm for the first of February has some moisture to work with, so we will keep an eye on it. The GFS weather model is predicting heavy Sierra snow for the entire first week of Feburary: Both models that we primarily use are predicting sustained cold for at least that first week in February. This is still developing and at least there is a chance to break out of this dry spell. Having said that, this is no...

We have not posted recently because there has been no reason to post. A powerful ridge in the Jet Stream is just off the coast and sending everything well north of us. Unfortunately, we are seeing no signs of a pattern change for at least the next 2 weeks. As much of the country is thrust into the deep cold, we will only see a portion of that. A bigger cold front will push down around the 25th of January. That could be accompanied by a slider type system. We will continue to monitor what Ma Nature has in store for us. This is beginning to look like a more typical La Nina winter, dry and cold. Stay Tuned ...

We have one more storm on tap for this cycle. After that, high pressure is going to dominate our weather and with it a big warm up. Here is the forecast for tomorrow around 4:00 pm. Again, another fast moving storm: This storm will bring with it a cold front. However, that cold air will not last. By the 7th, Sunday, warm air will move in from the south. We could see 60's in the valley locations next week.  We are also looking at a prolonged dry spell. Around the 12th of January we will see a system slide down the east side of the Sierra. That will change the dynamic. That will boot the ridge much further west and should open a storm door at just the right time. Somewhere around mid-January we are expecting this: Stay Tuned ...

Although this latest series of storms has underperformed our expectations, it will continue throughout the day. Then we will get a short break before the final storm in the series comes in for Friday (1/3). It looks like high pressure sets in after that for probably 10-14 days. These warm storms have had trouble getting enough lift to make it over the Sierra Crest with a few exceptions.  Mt. Rose will get 2-3 feet out of this cycle. Again, not your typical La Nina storms. Today's storm should be past us by this evening. We will then have a short break to dry out. Things will again warm up before the next storm comes in Friday: This cycle has left lots of precipitation in Northern California, which is always beneficial. The Pacific NW has been getting pounded all winter and these next few storms will be no exception. Here is a look at the precip potential through next Friday (1/3): We hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas and will enjoy a prosperous New Year. Unless something cha...

The storms are stacking up in the Eastern Pacific. We are tracking as many as 6 storms heading our way starting with Today's storm. This will bring clouds, wind and snow to Mt. Rose for nearly 10 straight days. One of the bigger of these storms will be on Christmas Eve: This is a pretty warm storm and it is moving pretty fast. However, a weaker wave comes through on the 26th and then another stronger wave comes through on the 27th: These are also pretty warm storms. However, this will be all snow for Mt. Rose. A number of weaker waves will follow the storm on the 27th, then on the 29th we are looking at another warmer storm: If you are wondering about New Years, this pattern will be active until at least the 3rd of January. Here is what we are talking about in the way of liquid precipitation: We are now thinking 4-6 feet of snow for Mt. Rose in the next 10 days. We are expecting 2 inches of liquid precip at the lake, much of that will be rain. The Western Crest will see nearly 10 f...