Tahoe Weather Blog

We just looked at the latest model run of the ECMWF. It does not look good for the skiers and riders.  First, we have a weak system coming in for Thursday: This is also a pretty warm system. Snow levels will hover between 7,000 and 8,000 feet. That will be all snow for Mt. Rose and we will take it. This last storm did what we thought and delivered between 1-2 feet which will give their snowmaking a good kickstart. This next storm looks like 3-5 inches of snow. Looking at the weather through the remainder of November, it looks like above average temperatures and dry. There are a few slider systems that will bring some cold air in, but only temporarily. I have looked at the monthly as well. Usually, we do not have to look that far out, but the models are predicting an extended dry period lasting into December. Sorry, no other way to put that. Having said that, the models have been changing on a daily basis. I find it hard to believe we will be dry for that long and will continue sear...

What looked like a very predictable storm coming out of the Gulf of Alaska is proving to be quite baffling to the weather models. Here is what we expect for now: Today (11/13) - Storm has moved on shore but there is a strong rain shadow. Mt. Rose will be kept away from the precip until later tonight. The leeward valleys could pick up some precip (all rain) early tomorrow morning. Snow levels will be greater than 8,000 feet. Tomorrow (11/14) - Storm moves out of the area by mid morning. The air remains very warm. Saturday (11/15) - Storm does an about face and moves back north by late Saturday night. Still very warm with snow levels over 8,000 feet. Sunday (11/16) - Storm is kicked out by a cold front from the north. Temperatures begin to drop. Monday (11/17) - Cold front comes through and snow levels fall to around 6,000 feet. Thursday (11/20) - Another storm comes in from the west. This storm is cooler and snow levels will be below 7,000 feet. That is what we are seeing. To sum it all...

The storm that is on tap for Thursday should bring around 12-18 inches of snow to Mt. Rose by Friday morning. Let's hope it overachieves as we do not see any major storms in the next several weeks.  Here is the forecast for Thursday, mid-morning: Snow levels will start around 8,000 and then drop down to around 5,800 as the cold front moves through. Here is the precip forecast for the event: Looking ahead, temperatures will be much cooler, below seasonal averages. The possibility for a pattern change could arrive just before Thanksgiving, but that is still too far out to forecast. Stay Tuned ...

We have a fast moving, cold storm steaming down the coast that will bring cold, snowy, rainy and windy weather to the mountains and valleys around Tahoe. Here is the forecast for 10am tomorrow morning: You can see a decent moisture tail. Unfortunately as this thing moves inland it will fall apart. Snow levels look to be around 7,500 feet with maybe 6-12 inches in the Carson Range. We are tracking a storm with much better potential for the 13th: This storm is still fast moving but should bring colder air and lower snow levels as we begin to work on a base at the ski resorts. We are hoping for 1-2 feet and possibly more. Of course this is still 9 days off. Around this time we will see much cooler weather heading into the holiday. Our hope is a large storm toward the end of the month beginning of November to really solidify the base. Stay Tuned ...

The rainy season does not start for 3 weeks. However, we have storm coming to Tahoe for Monday and Tuesday. Here is the forecast for early Tuesday morning: Of course this will be a warmer storm, but expect snow above 9,000 feet and in some areas along the Sierra Crest that snow will be heavy. Our temperatures will quickly recover and much of that snow will end up melting because the sun is still very strong this time of year. Most of the leeward valleys will be shadowed out so do not expect any heavy rain in Reno or Carson. We are not seeing any major weather events for the next several weeks after this storm. Seasonal Outlook What will this winter bring? Of course trying to predict this is always crap shoot. We live in Nevada so why not? Surprisingly our predictions have been within 5% the last 6 years (look it up!). The first thing we look at is the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO. Right now we are in a neutral ENSO. However, that will most likely transition to La Nina starting ...

Storms this time of year are usually weak. We have one more storm knocking on the door for the final weekend at Mt. Rose. This storm is not strong, and could produce up to a foot of snow, but most likely in the 6 inch range. It should get rolling very early tomorrow (4/26) and snow on and off for about 24 hours. I do not see any really heavy periods of snow, but this storm could deliver a surprise. Here is the forecast for late tomorrow night. You can clearly see there is not much to this storm. One thing it will bring is much cooler air. Ironically all around the storm is very warm air which makes forecasting a bit tricky. We would be remiss not to say that this storm will move our season snowfall to slightly above average. That is exactly what we expected and forecast back in early November. In all likelihood this will be our final post of the season. Take care!

The two storms that we talked about in our last post have literally joined forces and we have seen a decent snow event for quite a few days. This is not done. Monday should bring a very snowy day. Tomorrow (3/16) will bring light snow to begin with and very strong winds and then heavier snow late in the evening. Here is a look at the forecast for Monday early morning: More snow heading our way. This will be all snow for Mt. Rose as a cold front moves down from the Pacific NW. We are currently not seeing any more major events through the end of March. However, this next storm should bring 1-3 feet of additional snow for Mt. Rose. Here is the precipitation forecast through Tuesday: Stay Tuned ...