Tahoe Weather Blog

We have 3 systems that will move quickly through and have a slight impact on the area. I do not see any major snowfall amounts in any one given time period, however the total of all 3 systems will leave us with more snow in the Carson Range and Sierra. Let's focus on the total precip and snow levels. Mt. Rose will receive all snow. For the most part snow levels will be around 6,500-7,000 feet. However, the 2nd system could bring in some warmer air and snow levels could jump to 7,500 feet late tomorrow or early Tuesday. Here is the precip forecast: Some areas of the High Sierra, around the western crest could see as much as 3 additional feet. Those areas, above 9,000 feet have picked up so much snow this season, that 3 feet is like a few inches anywhere else. It is interesting that Mt. Rose has led North America in snowfall amounts, because the highest peaks, west of Lake Tahoe at the crest of the Sierra have picked up much more snow, perhaps some areas in the 1,000 inch ra

We are tracking 3 storms right now for next Wednesday, then a week from today and then, perhaps, the 21st of April. The last storm hooked up nicely with a moisture tap and we see something similar for the storm next week, although probably not as much moisture by about half. Here is the forecast for late Wednesday night: A decent moisture connection, but nothing like what we saw in the last storm. Snow levels for this one should be around 6,500 at the start and fall to around 5,000 feet as the cold front passes through. That means the leeward foothills can expect more snow on the ground. The following Sunday night see's the next storm come in. This storm does not have the moisture associated with it and will only bring in more cool air. I see light amounts of snow and lot of wind. Here is the forecast for Sunday afternoon as the storm approaches: The last storm we are tracking could show up on the 21st and may bring a return to the moisture tap, we will have to wait a

The storm track for our latest weather system has shifted north and Tahoe is now right in the bullseye of the storm. This is a major storm for this time of year and will last through most of Saturday with high winds and lots of precip, mostly snow above 7,000 and perhaps lower. Most of the major precip should be over by late Saturday afternoon. However, we are talking about a lot of rain and mountain snow between now and then. The possibility exists for a major snow event for the leeward foothills around 5,500 feet and above as the NWS is having difficulty pinpointing snow levels with this very unusual storm. If you live in one of those areas, be prepared. The next storm we are tracking comes in next Wednesday, April 12th. This looks like an abnormally large spring storm again: This storm has adequate moisture and will come in warm we believe right now. Our best guess is 7,500 feet. This system will stick around until late Friday afternoon. We are tracking another abnormall

If you read the last post, we are now approaching what we termed a decent storm. Here are the details: Approaching storm will mean above average temps tomorrow as storm's counter clockwise rotation brings in sub-tropical air. Thursday starts out warm, but as storm approaches, temperatures begin to drop and winds begin to increase, especially Thursday afternoon. Very early Friday approaching storm reaches Sierra and has a very adequate moisture tap. Moisture should be moderate to heavy through Saturday as this storm is moving much slower than the last series of storms. Storm could produce as much as 10 inches of liquid precip at the Sierra Crest South around Mammoth and up to 5 inches in the Carson Range. That classifies this as a very strong spring storm. Here is a look at the GFS forecast for late Friday night as the storm peaks around then: Here is a look at the total precip. Some areas of the Central Sierra could pick up 10+ inches of liquid precip, which would

We have a few fast moving, moisture starved storms heading our way. The first hits very early Thursday morning. It would classify it as a slider, but it is dropping in straight from the north. To our west High Pressure is dominating and blocking any reasonable moisture tap for this storm. The next storm comes in very late on Sunday night and follows a similar pattern: This one is trying to weasel a bit more moisture around the blocking ridge of high pressure. I see at best just a few inches of snow above 6,500 feet for both of these storms in the Carson Range and about the same or slightly more in the Sierra. As the ridge of high pressure begins to break down, we are tracking what might be a bit more of a winter event which should begin to approach our area about a week from tomorrow. If this storm decides to slow down and take its time, unlike the last several storms, we could be measuring precip in feet rather than inches: It is still way too early to make the call,

The first in a series of the 3 storms is just about past us. We will have a very short reprieve until the next storm arrives. That storm is scheduled to show up late Friday afternoon. It is a quick moving storm and will be out of here in less than 24 hours. Then we will have another short reprieve ahead of a slightly bigger storm scheduled to come in very early on Monday morning. Again, this storm will not stick around for long and will be long gone within 24 hours. Here is a look at the forecast for Friday @ noon, just ahead of the storm: Pretty impressive as it makes its way inland. However, the storm will break-up somewhat. It is also moving pretty fast. Snow levels appear to be around 6,500 -7,000 feet for this event. The next storm begins to move in very late Sunday night: This appears to be a slightly colder storm with snow levels forecast to be around 6,500 feet. It too is moving fast and will not hold together well as it makes its way to Tahoe. After this stor

A series of moderate storms are headed our way. The first is knocking on the door. It is going to take about 24 hours for this storm to get organized, then it will tap into some moisture and begin what should be a fairly stormy week. The synopsis is: Storm Monday through Tuesday, break Wednesday through Thursday, then another storm for Friday into Saturday. Here is the first of the storms as it gets cranking around noon on Tuesday: Again, we see some shadowing for the Sierra and we are right on the edge of the cold and warm air. I believe this will be all snow above 7,500 feet. After a break for Wednesday and most of Thursday, the next storm arrives late Thursday night. Here is a look at the forecast as the storm approaches Thursday afternoon: This storm is packing cool air and tapping into very warm sub-tropical air which is always challenging to forecast snow levels. As we get closer we can pinpoint where the rain snow line will occur. Right now my guess is around 8,000

You do not need me to tell you that we have a very strong ridge of high pressure setup right off the coast of California and it is bringing us very warm and sunny weather ... for now. We are starting to see signs of another wet pattern forming and effecting the Tahoe area starting about a week from today (3/20). The storm track is from the south and everything is going right around our ridge of high pressure. However, as that breaks down that storm track is going to go straight through Tahoe. Seeing how we will be in late March when the storms arrive, do not expect anything like what we saw in January. Having said that, our weather pattern will change, moisture will come our way and temperatures will drop. The storms will come in fairly dry on Monday, but by Tuesday at noon we are looking at this: These storms should continue to hit our area for 3-5 days (maybe more, too far out to call). However, I see some shadowing, which is often the case this time of year, so the Carson R

A very cold and fast moving system will drop out of the north and dump snow in the Sierra and leeward valleys of Nevada. This system will bring much cooler air and very strong winds. I expect about 36 hour period of light to moderate snowfall to fall on the Sierra and Carson Range. At the peak of the storm which will be Sunday morning here is a look: This is nothing like what we say in January and February. However, with the much cooler temps I do expect a hefty dumping of much lighter snow than we saw in those storms. Here is a look at the precip forecast: I think we could be talking about 18-36 inches by Monday for Mt. Rose, heavier amounts on the west side of the lake. This storm will quickly clear out and temps will rise into the 50's under high pressure by weeks end. Stay Tuned ...

This is a quick update to the forecast. This next storm's trajectory is now almost straight out of the north. That completely cuts off the moisture tap we have seen for the past couple of months. We no longer see any type of major precip event. In fact, we are now forecast 3-6 inches of snow for the Carson range Sunday night into early Monday morning. However, expect strong winds on Sunday ahead of the front and much colder air starting Monday, with a return to average temps by Thursday. Looking ahead, we see no major weather events for the next 10 days. Stay Tuned ...

As the cold front passed through last night, it severed the line of warm moist air to Tahoe. As a result, it looks now like we may receive an extended break, with the exception of a fast moving, much cooler storm that is on tap for this weekend. The original model runs showed a much better moisture tap. Now, this storm's trajectory is much more out of the north and I do not see a major weather event like what we have witnessed over the last couple of months. Once this storm moves out, high pressure will take over for at least 4-5 days. The storm will arrive Sunday afternoon and be gone by Monday at noon. Here is a quick look at the forecast for Sunday evening: This is a much cooler storm than we have seen in quite some time, so I look for higher snow ratios. In fact, I still see around 2 feet of very light powder for Mt. Rose on Monday. While the other side of the lake could see double that in some places particularly at the Sierra Crest. Here is what we are looking at i

Averages have a way of catching up. We have been saying that for years. Last year we shifted from an extremely dry pattern to an average winter. That trend told us, that those averages were going to start catching up, this year. That is why we predicted an above average snowfall year. We had no idea! This latest storm continues to pound Northern California and the Sierra. It will continue until Wednesday morning then we will have a short drying out. Here is a look at the current conditions: As this latest storm moves inland, it will give way to a drier period. That will last until Saturday afternoon when the next system moves in. That system can be clearly seen along with its path straight to California. Those two storms will eventually become one larger storm. Again, that storm will have a very large moisture tap. Here is a look at the forecast for next Saturday afternoon: Currently, the models are not showing another massive moisture event. However, the scales ha

The party gets going again around noon on Thursday. A massive storm which is centered well to our north will spin up at least 5 smaller storms and throw them right into the entire state of California, including Tahoe. Like we have seen for the last month and a half, these storms have plenty of subtropical moisture to work with.  Here is the forecast for Thursday at noon: As these storms tap into the subtropical moisture, they will come in warm. As they exit they will pull down cooler air ... until the next system arrives. So look for around 8,000 feet on this first storm, with snow levels coming down to around 5,500 feet as we get on the back side. Then, late Friday night, we have a split condition. The storm will split with the moisture tap partially broken for Tahoe, but on full display for Central and Southern California: The next storm shows up around Sunday at noon. This storm will pull more air from the north and less from the south, which means fa

The strongest winds of the season are heading our way. They will start up tonight and continue into the afternoon tomorrow. Ridge top winds will exceeed 150mph, while downslope winds for the leeward foothills could see gusts in excess of 100 mph. The next big wave of moisture will start up tomorrow afternoon and with it we will have falling snow levels. I expect Mt. Rose to pick up all snow starting tomorrow afternoon. I expect an additional 2-4 feet of snow by Friday evening. Here is a look at the forecast for tomorrow @ noon: By the time Saturday afternoon rolls around, we will be in the sunshine with above average temps through next Thursday. Then everything changes back! We are tracking several large storms that appear headed right at Tahoe. Here is a look at the forecast for the 16th of February: More impressive is the pattern that is setting up, with a massive storm to the north spinning off waves of smaller storms and sending them straight through Tahoe: The

The biggest change in our forecast certainly has to do with the snow levels. First of all, take a look at what we can expect tomorrow: This storm is packed with moisture. It is arriving on the heels of our last storm so we will continue to see moisture and wind until about next Friday afternoon. This moisture is coming straight from Hawaii and with it will come some very warm air. Much warmer than what we forecast last week. Although snow levels will probably not get much above 8,000 feet, we could see a period of rain on half of Slide Mountain. This is a pure pineapple express, here is a look at the Pineapple Express in its purest form: Pinpointing exact snow levels is very difficult, we believe 8,000 is pretty much as high as the rain will get for any sustained period. However, we could be way off too. If we see rain at 10,000 feet, things could get dicey, especially with all the moisture packed into this storm. I wish I could tell you with certainty what will happen at wha

Here is a look at the current conditions in the Northern Pacific: The current storm should continue to pound us off and on through the night and then to a lesser degree tomorrow and tomorrow night. The Next storm can be seen on the picture above. It will follow a nearly identical path and bring more moisture to the area. Then, on the heels of that storm, another storm will gain strength and follow the nearly identical path. There is copious amounts of moisture in the sub-tropical Pacific for these storms to tap into. I see snow elevations moving down slightly but staying between 5,500 and 7,500 feet. Here is the forecast timing of these events: Early Monday Morning (3:00am) This is the beginning of the second storm of the three we talked about earlier. This will last throughout the day on Monday. We will get a very short break around 2:00am Tuesday morning until about noon on Tuesday, then the same storm will send us a huge wave of moisture. 4:00 Tuesday Afternoon

If you read our post from a couple of days ago, we talked about two storms. The first of the storms arrives Thursday. That storm looks to be strengthening and will deliver more moisture than we originally anticipated. The 2nd storm looked like it was going to head north of us. That storm now has moved considerably south, and is packed with moisture. It is coming sooner than we anticipated and should arrive very early Monday morning just as our first storm is exiting. Folks, this is starting to look like one of those weeks we had in January. I expect copious amounts of snow to fall in the Sierra and Carson Range, with significant rain hitting the leeward valleys, as much as 1-4 inches depending on your location. Here is a look at the forecast for early Monday morning: This storm has moved so far south that it will have a large effect on Central and parts of Southern California as well. Here is the new total precip forecast: All of the Sierra and Carson range are in th

High Pressure is dominating our weather with deep valley inversions and beautiful warm mountain days. That is going to come to an end on Thursday morning as a decent sized storm moves in from the west and will bring moderate precipitation to the Sierra and Carson Range. Then, after that storm moves out, an even bigger system it going to move into the area in about 8 days. That system may move north of us, too soon to tell. Here is a look at the first system very early Friday morning when the peak of the precipitation begins: This system will hang around and deliver moderate to heavy precip until around noon on Saturday. Snow levels will start low, rise to around 7,500 feet and then drop as we get on the backside of the front. I do not see any accumulating snow below 6,000 feet. However, we will almost certainly see some rain in the valleys. The higher and further west you are, the more rain you will get. I see the leeward foothills picking up close to an inch. The next system

Not much has changed from our forecast. We have 3 storms heading our way. These storms will NOT produce the same amount of precip as that last batch, however they are much cooler and will bring snow all the way to the valley floor. First, here is a look at the storm track: These next 3 storms are taking aim at the Tahoe area. The first storm, will start out a little warmer, but will set the table for the other two storms by pulling cooler air in from the north. Here is a look at the latest forecast for Wednesday afternoon as the storm approaches: The next storm comes in on the heels of this storm, here is a look at very early Friday morning: The last storm in the bunch shows up around Sunday at noon. These storm are coming back to back to back and we will see nearly constant mountain snow above 7,000 feet to start and then lower as that first storm makes its way through. That snow will last nearly an entire week. Precip totals are about what we were predicting with