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Saturday, March 10, 2012

Ready or Not, Here it Comes

We have been talking for about 3 weeks or more that conditions are becoming favorable for a change to a prolonged stormy period. Well here it comes. Let's not mess around. This first image is the total liquid precip forecast by the EC weather model for the next 10 days:

10 Day Precip Forecast
Many areas around Lake Tahoe are forecast for better than 5 inches of precip. There could be more. There is a ton of moisture to work with as MJO does its thing. The determining factor is how big will the storms be that drop out of the Gulf of AK?

This next chart is almost a carbon copy of last year at this time. It is also a Tahoe skiers dream. Our ridge of high pressure has been well west, while another ridge has setup west of Hudson Bay. That creates a storm corridor directly into Northern California.


This should produce a series of storms that should come one after another. The party starts Tuesday night when the snows begin. This pattern has the potential to go 2 weeks or more as the long range models are showing a strengthening of this pattern. Here is a look at Tuesday night:

Tuesday Night 

This is the first in a series of waves that should produce nearly constant mountain snow for about 5 days before a short break next weekend. At times this snow will be very heavy and I will pinpoint when the best powder days are going to be tomorrow or Monday.

For now, take a look at the impulse coming in for Thursday night:

Thursday Night into Friday

This is some of that 3 inches an hour stuff and could last as much as 12 hours, we will just have to see. Another strong impulse looks to be coming in Saturday night. 

The timing will change I am sure. That is why I will keep a close eye on this report accordingly.

Stay Tuned ...

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