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Friday, March 2, 2012

What's Next?

Ok, that was a great week for winter as all of the Sierra around Tahoe was blanketed with at least 4 feet of snow and some areas as much as 8 feet! Coverage out there is much better, but what's next?

If you believe the NWS, nothing. Not for a couple of weeks. However, sometimes they make their calls based solely on weather models. They were caught with their pants down this week as were the weather models. The EC weather model is predicting a couple of good storms in the next 10 days or so, starting with next Tuesday/Wednesday. However GFS has everything staying well to our north.

Here is a look at a storm with ample moisture that is being forecast by the EC weather model. The EC was closest to this past weeks surprise:

3/12 - Is this being affected by MJO moisture??

MJO has settled into phase 3. What the heck does that mean? That means that it is in a very good position to have a very moist impact on our weather. The models have certainly not picked up on this, however some of the long range predictors have. In any event, this should shake out in the next 3-4 days and we will get a better picture of at least the potential for another March miracle.

Stay Tuned ...

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