What a beautiful run of weather we have had for what seems like forever. With the exception of just a few days, the weather has been pretty nice since the beginning of April.
However, who wants nice weather. You can't ski on rocks. I think I speak for many people when I say, "Bring on the crummy weather"!
Well, if you believe the EC model, that crummy weather is knocking on the door. If you have not shut down your irrigation system (sprinklers) go out and do it now. That is because it is going to get really cold. Saturday night the low temps will be down around zero in the Sierra (or colder) and low teens in the valley.
This change is due to a decent storm that will usher in cold air and some moisture. We have been talking about this for a couple of weeks now. Here is my best guess for this weather event:
1-2 feet of snow along the Sierra Crest North and West of Lake Tahoe with lesser amounts in the Carson Range (6-12 inches at slide). This is not going to be the precip event I was hoping for a couple of weeks ago but we will take what we can get. Here is a look at early Friday morning. There will be several bands of potentially heavy snow and the possibility exists of lake effect snow with Tahoe being so warm and the air mass being so cold:
Now for the real treat. The EC long range model is picking up on a fairly dramatic weather pattern shift. That shift is what we have been waiting for. It appears that the beginning starts tomorrow but things should pick up rather dramatically around the week of Thanksgiving. In fact, if you are driving over the passes on Thanksgiving be aware that the most reliable computer model for our area is predicting very heavy snowfall for that week. Having said that, this is a long way out and things could change in the long range outlook. In my last post I published a 30 day precip map that talked about 4 inches of liquid precip by months end. I am going to publish a newer run of that same map and you can see for yourself the major changes that EC is forecasting:
The entire Tahoe area is now forecast (long range) to receive more than 10 inches of liquid precip. Even the leeward valleys are looking at what must be considered a major precip event with more precip forecast in a 20 day period than is the annual average. Truly something to keep an eye on and look forward to. I have not seen this in the long range map in nearly 2 years.
Is this really going to happen? I do not know. I do not make the weather. However, I sure like looking ahead and seeing what these models have in store. Keep your fingers crossed and I will report accordingly.
Stay Tuned ...