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Thursday, November 15, 2012

Stormy 5 Days Ahead, Then Dry

Ok, we have been watching this for better than 2 weeks. It really looked like things were shaping up nicely. However, conditions have changed, our alley has significantly widened and unfortunately, as it looks now, the real heavy precip will be moving north of us.

However, the next 5 days bring a series of storms and short waves to the area. Our best chance for heavy snow looks like very early Sunday morning. Here is a GFS look for early Sunday morning:


You can clearly see the main storm is still north and west. It will continue to send precip our way through Tuesday and possibly longer.

Unfortunately, these are very warm storms and snow levels could be in the 8,000-9,000 foot level for most of the event. I think Slide looks like all snow, but other resorts that start around lake level are going to get a health dose of rain up to at least 8,000 feet.

These two storms are important for us. Hopefully precip increases and snow levels fall. I am guessing the Sierra, west of Lake Tahoe, could get as much as 3 feet of snow by next Wednesday, if all goes well. That number is above 8,000 feet though. I am hoping/guessing that Slide Mountain could pick 2-3 feet above 8,000 ... again if all goes well.

My real concern is that our eastern blocking ridges, that force those storms down into our area, appear as though they will move east and out of the picture. The EC weather model has us dry for at least a couple of weeks after Thanksgiving. Here is a look at the long range precip potential from tonight until Mid-December. A couple things to note; first most of our precip comes in the next week. There appears to be no significant precip coming for the following three weeks. Secondly, as proof of this, north of us they are looking at well in excess of 10+ inches of liquid precip throughout the Cascade Range.


For you Mammoth buffs ... your best chances are also in the next week, but to a lesser degree than in Tahoe.

Now, having said all that, these models can easily change their mind again. They were pretty good about predicting this stormy period but had the bigger storms moving further south. That could still happen. With a little luck my next post could be titled, NEVER MIND.

Stay Tuned ...

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