Slight Pattern Shift to Wetter, Warmer Storms

We are seeing a pattern change develop. Up until this point our storms have been born in the north and come through Tahoe with very little moisture to work with. Perhaps you remember last year when the storms came down and tapped into a very active moisture plume and brought record snow to the Sierra and record rains to Northern California and Western Nevada. We are seeing a similar, albeit not as powerful, pattern begin to develop. What does that mean? More snow for the Sierra with warmer and wetter storms.

We are currently tracking 3 more storms in the next 10 days with what looks like more storms stacked up behind them. The first storm should show up in Tahoe on around 2 pm on Monday (10/13):


This storm will be similar to what we have been getting, with little moisture, lots of wind and a cold front behind the leading edge of warm air. Again, we look for this to start at about 7,000 feet and work it's way down. We do not expect a major snow event, but we will take what we can get.

The 2nd system comes in late Wednesday (10/15) and lasts through Thursday, notice the moisture plume to the south and west.



This system has more moisture and does appear to have enough cool air to come in around 7,000 feet. Again, the leading edge of warm air makes forecasting snow elevations very challenging. But we are sticking with 7,000 feet and those levels will fall down to 5,000 as the front moves through. This is not a major snow event by Sierra standards, but we could be looking at 10-18 inches above 7,000 feet, including the Carson Range.

The third and wettest system comes in on Saturday afternoon (10/18):



This system comes up from the south and has much more moisture to work with. It will come in warmer and snow levels could start very high. We will fine tune this as we move closer to next weekend. It looks like it will hold together better and if snow levels can hold, Mt. Rose could pick up an addition 1-3 feet. Cross your fingers.

While we are at it, here is a look at a fourth system that could show up Monday 10/20, again from the south and west with more moisture:


Here is a look at the total precip forecast for the 3 systems we detailed:


The possibility does exist for Slide Mountain to pick up 3-6 feet of snow in the next 10-12 days which would open some upper terrain.

Finally, here is your fantasy forecast for the next 30 days as ECMWF model has the storms continuing. We call this fantasy for a reason!



Stay Tuned ...

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