Tahoe Weather Blog

First let me apologize for my absence. The day job keeps getting in the way. You may notice no advertisement on this website ... there will never be any. Therefore, unfortunately, I have to find gainful employment elsewhere. If there was going to be a major dump this weekend, I would have been on it. As it is, the storm door opened just too wide. That allowed the storm to dig south down the coast and go right past us. Recall that the blocking ridge of high pressure, which was responsible for our dry fall and early winter, needs to be in just the right place. What has happened this weekend, is the ridge has moved too far south and west. However, the good news is that Southern California will get some much needed rain. I believe by end of day Monday, the Carson Range should get another 3-5 inches of snow. Take a look. The first picture is our current conditions. Notice how far west and south the ridge of high pressure is. With no blocking, the storms can move straight down the coast. T

Short Term This next wave looks like a direct hit. Here is the forecast for early tomorrow morning from the EC weather model: There will be periods of 3 inches (or more) an hour snowfall. The storm will spill over into the leeward valleys in the form of rain. With this storm comes some very cold air which will settle in for the next couple of days along with additional snow showers and additional snow accumulations in the mountains. The difference in snow amounts between the Carson Range and Sierra have been amazing this week. The Sierra on the west side of Tahoe has picked up a whopping 3-4 times the snowfall. The difference in the approaching storm will not be so stark. In fact look for a major blizzard late tonight and tomorrow in the Carson range with very heavy snow and high winds. I expect the Carson range to come in at between 2-5 feet and the Sierra with slightly more, around 3-6 feet in the next 3 days. The high Sierra south and west of Tahoe will have places that

Overall Discussion Our two storms are quickly turning into the three storms. One is poised to come into our area tonight, then another late Thursday and another early Saturday. Tonight's storm will last well into tomorrow and we will get a very short break prior to the Thursday night event. Here is a look at the updated precip totals through Friday, this does not include Saturday's event which may be the biggest of them all: This forecast by the NAM weather model has some areas of the western Sierra picking up 10+ inches of liquid precip. This truly is a gigantic event for this time of year. All the mountain areas should pick up a minimum of 3-6 inches with the Carson Range probably hovering around the 4 inch mark by end of day Friday. These storms will start cold and then tap into sub tropical moisture which will raise snow levels from 5,500 feet to near 8,000 feet. Again, this is very difficult to predict and the NWS has been all over the board on this. Carson Range T

We have been discussing this for a few weeks now. Currently we are in between systems, but that will change starting tonight for the Western Sierra. Storm One Tuesday night through Wednesday The first big system will bring heavy snow to the Tahoe area. The snow levels can be variable but the local NWS is talking about 7,000 feet. This moisture is coming from the sub-tropics which means two things. 1. Lots of it. 2. Less predictable snow levels. Here is a look at the EC forecast for late Tuesday into early Wednesday: There is a large moisture tap for this wave and the Sierra will see copious amounts of snow. Most of the precip for the Carson range will fall on Wednesday, but there should be a large band of snow to dump between 12 and 18 inches ... or maybe more, at Mt. Rose Tuesday and Wednesday. Storm Two Friday/Saturday/Sunday The exact timing of this event is still up in the air. It looks like it will start Friday afternoon and wind up early Sunday morning. This storm is t

We have been talking for about 3 weeks or more that conditions are becoming favorable for a change to a prolonged stormy period. Well here it comes. Let's not mess around. This first image is the total liquid precip forecast by the EC weather model for the next 10 days: 10 Day Precip Forecast Many areas around Lake Tahoe are forecast for better than 5 inches of precip. There could be more. There is a ton of moisture to work with as MJO does its thing. The determining factor is how big will the storms be that drop out of the Gulf of AK? This next chart is almost a carbon copy of last year at this time. It is also a Tahoe skiers dream. Our ridge of high pressure has been well west, while another ridge has setup west of Hudson Bay. That creates a storm corridor directly into Northern California. This should produce a series of storms that should come one after another. The party starts Tuesday night when the snows begin. This pattern has the potential to go 2 weeks or mor

Short Term If you enjoyed the last couple of days, then you will enjoy tomorrow as temps will climb close to 70 in Reno and Carson City. Tomorrow night will bring in a fast moving very cold front. With it will come all the winds and at least some snow for the Sierra. Precip with this front may start as rain below 8,500 feet but will quickly change over as the front approaches. This storm is moving fast but we can expect 2-6 inches for the Carson Range and possibly a bit more. Tuesday and Wednesday will see high temps barely make it out of the 40's in the leeward valley and not crack the freezing mark in the Sierra. Another warm ridge of high pressure will move in for Thursday. A possibility of another system comes in for the weekend, but the models have that moving just north. Long Term Okay, I have been talking about conditions being ripe for winter weather. I believe the storm that I discussed in my last post, for the 12th will come into our area and give the Sierra a decen

Ok, that was a great week for winter as all of the Sierra around Tahoe was blanketed with at least 4 feet of snow and some areas as much as 8 feet! Coverage out there is much better, but what's next? If you believe the NWS, nothing. Not for a couple of weeks. However, sometimes they make their calls based solely on weather models. They were caught with their pants down this week as were the weather models. The EC weather model is predicting a couple of good storms in the next 10 days or so, starting with next Tuesday/Wednesday. However GFS has everything staying well to our north. Here is a look at a storm with ample moisture that is being forecast by the EC weather model. The EC was closest to this past weeks surprise: 3/12 - Is this being affected by MJO moisture?? MJO has settled into phase 3. What the heck does that mean? That means that it is in a very good position to have a very moist impact on our weather. The models have certainly not picked up on this, however

This is just a quick update to my post earlier this morning. The storm has actually strengthened and will hit the Tahoe area with a bulls eye. It will then move slightly south and stall. That means snow and lots of it for the entire Tahoe area. We are now talking about 3-5 feet for the Sierra Crest and 2-4 feet for the Carson range by mid-day Thursday. At lake level they will receive more than a foot of snow. The Reno and Carson Valleys will mostly be blocked out, but should pick up 1-3 inches tomorrow morning around 6am lasting until about 10am. The foothills could pick up another 3-5 inches. The big news on this storm is the prolific moisture. Similar to what happened on Monday, these last two storms are picking up copious amounts of moisture. They are rising above the High Sierra, condensing quickly and dumping. After midnight the Sierra could well see snow amounts in excess of 3-4 inches an hour for about 12-18 hour period. Again this will be all snow at all Lake Tahoe elevations a

Short Term The Sierra is in the cross hairs of another larger storm that will start to make its presence felt later this afternoon and last through the day tomorrow with lingering snow lasting through Thursday. This storm is larger and has a much better moisture tap than yesterday's. Here is what we are looking at very early tomorrow morning (2/29): Large Storm Coming to Tahoe Sierra This storm will have a more profound affect over the Western Sierra than the Carson range. However I still expect a heavy dose of snow for the Carson Range. Right now we are looking at 2-3 feet for the Sierra Crest west of Lake Tahoe with 1-2 feet for Slide Mountain and the Carson Range. This should be all snow from the lake level on up. Incidentally, we are looking at 6-12 inches around the lake. Mid Term We are still looking at the potential for another storm next week, the question remains when? The models are not in sync on this one but the consensus is some time around mid-week expect ano

The winds are dying and the mountains should open up completely this morning as this strong cold front has passed through the area. The NWS is cancelling all wind warning by early this afternoon. Conditions are turning much more favorable for a series of small storms to hit the Tahoe area starting Sunday night with a better storm coming on Wednesday and Thursday. Then early the following week, the storm door appears to be opening a bit wider as another larger storm is headed our way. Here is the EC look at the storm slated for March 5th: Here is a look at precip through the 5th. Amounts are slightly understated because the aforementioned big storm will be just beginning to hit our area: I am thinking about 1-2 inches of liquid precip by the 7th of March which of course should make conditions better. Despite the lack of snow this year, conditions at Mt. Rose are quite good. We just have not had the pow that we have become accustomed to in years past. I am still looking for eve

Current Through Next Week A series of systems are headed our way. Unfortunately they are not packing enough moisture to bring us any significant precipitation. They are packing cold air and wind. They will continue to re-enforce through next week which will bring us our worst week of weather this entire winter ... I define bad weather as being cold, windy and no precip. Strong Winds Forecast For Friday Night The pressure gradient is just right for this next system, which comes through tomorrow night to whip up some serious winds, as much as 120 mph for the Crest. Do not be surprised if the foothills and other wind prone areas of the valley see gusts in excess of 100mph, so get your basketball hoops and other yard items under cover or they could end up getting blown in the valley. Long Range MJO has stalled, but not all is lost. There are a series of events that lead the TWB to believe that we are still in for a wet March, but probably not starting until the 2nd week. Again we ar

Short Term In my last post I predicted between 2-5 feet of snow for the Sierra through the end of this week. Some of the energy of the series of storms, that has been ushered in by favorable conditions, has moved slightly south. Mammoth has picked up 2 feet of snow, while Squaw Valley is around 19 inches since my last post. However, we are not done yet. A series of short waves are due to show up on our door step starting Friday night and lasting through the weekend. These are weak short waves however this will bump up our snow total. The picture below forecasts the precip for the weekend, around 3/4 - 1 inch of liquid, with the cold air could translate into another foot of snow: I was really hoping for slightly more moisture, but these storms are just not big enough and lack the cold arctic air to pick up that moisture from the pacific. Thus the Sierra will be probably around 30 inches for the entire event while the Carson range will be around 18-24 inches. We will take it. Incide

Short Term through Next Week A nice healthy shot of moisture is coming to the Sierra with good spillover for the leeward valleys expected as well. We have a series of storms that should culminate with 2-4 inches of liquid precipitation. The storms start tomorrow with a weakening system that is currently just off the Oregon coast. After a day of rest on Sunday, a much more potent storm comes in for Monday and Tuesday. From there a series of storms should follow suit which could bring 2-5 feet of fresh snow to the Sierra and anywhere from 1- 2 inches of liquid precip to parts of the leeward valleys. Here is a look at precip potential through next week: We have a very favorable setup for a week of storms with a ridge of high pressure blocking west of Hudson Bay. Our ridge has moved south and west, and that opens up the storm corridor. The only thing I would like to see is a larger moisture tap. That could come, however. If it does, it will bring warmer air into the mix and snow levels

We had some pretty impressive rain totals. Main areas of the Sierra crest picked up 6-10 feet of snow at the very highest elevations. Some areas saw nearly 10 inches of liquid precip over the course of the last week. All of that was much needed. However things are going to dry out for a while. The ground moisture content is very high, so expect some fog for the next few days. Also expect a big warm up. The nearest I can see in the way of a storm cylce appears to be about 10-14 days which brings almost no confidence with it. I will continue to search for storms and give you, my loyal readers, the advanced notice. Stay Tuned ...

Next Storm The last storm in our series of storms is getting more impressive by the hour. In addition, snow levels should be around 5,000 to 6,000 feet max. The storm will crank up Sunday afternoon and last through at least Monday morning. There is now a very adequate moisture tap associated with this storm. The Sierra should pick up 1-3 feet of very skiable powder. The Carson range about 2/3 of that. Here is a forecast for 4:00 Sunday afternoon by the GFS. I am thinking the GFS is a little slow on the storm which may well get going earlier. In any event you can see the moisture tap from the west that is feeding this storm and the NWS has increased their snow totals. 4:00 Sunday (GFS) Current Conditions I went to Mt. Rose Ski area early this morning to get in a few turns. That is what I got, just a few turns. Unfortunately most of the precip from last night came in the form of rain except in the highest elevations. Lake Tahoe rose 2 inches last night as reported by the NWS. The

Warm Air Raising Snow Levels to Start As storm 2 begins to hit the Sierra, it is mixing with some incredibly warm air. This is causing rain below 9,000 feet. However, cold air is on the way and those snow levels should drop to around 7,500 by 8:00 tonight when the really heavy stuff comes in. Mountain Should Be Open Tomorrow Morning I am not speaking for any Tahoe resort, but winds should be manageable tomorrow morning when most ski areas open. There should be a blanket of 2-3 feet of very heavy snow. That should make a nice base and allow some additional terrain to open in the coming days. Some of that snow should be groomed down and most will fall between 8:00pm and 3:00am tomorrow morning. See you up there! Stay Tuned ...

Low Snow Totals After Round 1 When the moist air mixed with the dry air, the dry air won. Both the Sierra and Carson range picked up 2-4 inches, which was less than anybody predicted. The Washoe Drive fire appeared to fall victim to wind shifts as the front moved through. Once the wind started pushing the fire back, there was nothing to burn. In any event, moderate to heavy rain tonight will end all chance of fire for now. Today's Storm Picks Up Moisture I still like the trajectory of today's storm as it comes in with cold air over warm ocean water. This storm is packing more moisture and should produce much more snow. Some of that moisture will also spill over into the valley's lessening any chance for fire. Again, strong winds will accompany this storm. Expect most of the heavy precip after 10:00 tonight. The snow in the mountains should last through most of tomorrow, although by mid morning, expect amounts to taper off. I am still guessing 2-4 feet of snow out of thi

Below is our current weather conditions, yes it is a nice day in Hawaii: I am liking what I am seeing in the way of moisture and storm trajectory. I am hoping we are on the higher side of some of the forecasted precip ranges. You can see the line of storms being forced south and into our area by the blocking high pressure ridges. Stay Tuned ...

Here is what we are looking at right now. Confidence is pretty high. Unfortunately, precip totals, I believe, will fall well short of what we expected just 24 hours ago: Thursday First wave comes in. Snow levels will be right around 6,500 feet. This wave will not have a strong moisture tap. Add that with the incredibly dry air we have right now and precip totals will be down. I am guessing the Sierra will get perhaps up to an inch of precip by Friday morning. Because of the cooler air, that should translate to around 6-15 inches of snow for most of the Tahoe Sierra and Carson range. Expect pretty high winds on the eastern range Thursday afternoon and evening - Gusts to 75mph. Friday This continues to be the best chance for significant snow. Right now we are looking at 1.5 - 2.5 inches of liquid precip. This storm is really quite remarkable. Warm air will mix with the colder surface air and play havoc on snow levels. At times snow levels could climb to 9,000 feet. However, that will

Latest Trends The good news is that the latest trends actually have 4 storms coming into our area. The trend is that the snow levels should be much lower for the majority of the event than initially thought. The bad news is that we are not looking at quite as much moisture, but overall expect a major snow event for the Sierra. The crest should pick up between 4-8 feet in the next 7 days. Right now the the upper elevations of the Carson Range look to be in that same area. Possibility Exists of Heavy Valley Snow on Sunday 1/22 The NWS is looking at a possible Tonopah Low Event. Basically this event is brought on by the weakening of the high pressure which usually prevents storms from spilling over the Sierra. This event has been known to bring very heavy snow to Western NV. The NWS is only considering this as a possibility right now. I will keep an eye on this one. Storm 1 - Late Wednesday through Thursday Windy storm that should have snow levels around lake level (6,500 feet).

Update The timing and precip amounts that I talked about yesterday remain right on as of this morning's model runs with the possible exception of the Friday/Saturday storm bringing more precipitation. Snow levels are the concern here and remain so. Looking at things right now, it appears as though the Thursday storm will start cool and then a warm air overflow will bring snow levels up. The thinking now is everything above 8,000 feet will be all snow. The large storm set for Friday/Saturday is becoming even more impressive. The west to east trajectory will allow this storm to pick up copious amounts of moisture. The latest GFS run has this storm dropping 6 inches of liquid precip over the crest all in the form of snow. It looks like snow levels for this storm will be around 7,000-8,000 feet as well. The storm that I had slated for the following Tuesday, looks like it could show up a little earlier. I will talk more about that one when it gets closer but suffice it to say, it l

Starting today, prepare for major changes in our weather pattern. Tonight a cold front will be coming through the area. It will snow some in the Sierra, but probably not much. It will bring very cold air that will plunge low temperatures on Monday night into the single digits. This is just the first of a 4 part wave to hit the area. When all is said and done, expect 5-10 inches of liquid precip in the Sierra. The 2nd wave comes through on Thursday. There are some concerns about snow levels with this system. Right now the NWS is predicting the majority of the precip will be rain under 9,000 feet, especially just south of here. That could make it down to 8,000 feet and we will monitor as this 2nd wave approaches. Here is what GFS thinks for Thursday late morning: Late Thursday Morning 1/19 The third and biggest wave is set to come in Friday afternoon and last through Saturday. This system also is raising some concerns about snow levels. Here is the GFS look for Late Friday: L

As you know, I have  been tracking a number of variables for the past couple of months. Not the least of which is the cold air bottled up in the Arctic. That air is finally being tapped and released. In addition, a blocking area of high pressure is about to setup west of Hudson Bay. That will block storms from the north and force them south. Our blocking area of high pressure is about to get rubbed out and moved south which should open a very adequate moisture tap. What does all that mean? Dumpage for Tahoe and possibly a good healthy amount. Currently all the models are pointing at this taking place around the middle of next week. The following shows how things set up for next Tuesday, January 17: Notice the blocking ridge west of Hudson Bay. That will force storms down the coast. That arctic air will also invade the midwest as it spills out of the north. What does all this mean? Right now the models are all over the place on just how much precip for Tahoe. Here is a look at the

Near Term (1-2 Weeks) I was all set to show you a significant pattern change. Then I took a look at the latest run of the models and could hardly believe my eyes. Yesterday morning, the 3 long range models seemed to be in agreement that 7-9 days would bring cooler, stormier weather to our area. Because the models have been for the most part worthless this year, I decided to take an extra day. Today, the models are all over the place, and from everything that I can see, we will stay in the dry pattern for at least a couple of weeks. The EC model is suggesting around the 20th, our blocking ridge of high pressure could be shoved south and west, however GFS keeps the ridge in place and all the cold air well to our north. This is extremely frustrating as this weather pattern has been in place since the middle of October. At least for now it is only showing faint signs of changing. Even if we do get a change, it will only be small storms for the area. The reason? MJO (Merridian-Julian Oscil

This will be a very quick post. I have been tracking what looks to be a major change in our weather pattern for the last 2 weeks. However, I have been reluctant to talk a great deal about it, mostly because of the winter, or lack thereof, we are currently experiencing. Checking the latest runs of the weather models, the AO and the PNA, I have noticed that all signs are pointing at winter coming to Tahoe around the the 15th of this month. I am heading up to Mt. Rose to catch the early morning corduroy. This afternoon I will lay out my case for this change coming in about 6-8 days. Stay Tuned ...

A Strong area of high pressure is going to move into our area and produce unseasonably warm temperatures and continued dry weather into the foreseeable future. I have checked with a number of weather models and they show no chance of even a passing storm for our area in the next 10+ days. That is the bad news. The good news is that we are finally seeing indications from multiple sources that we are in for a major change between the 12 - 17th of this month. I do not want to jump the gun here, but over the course of the next week I will start to make my case for winter finally coming to Tahoe around the middle of January. This weather has been unprecedented since weather data has been kept. On another note; I hopped on some of the first chairs at Mt. Rose the last couple of days. Saturday was pretty good, Sunday was truly remarkable. Perfect corduroy on all runs. Remember these conditions are being made with snow supplied by man and not God! Again truly remarkable. If you have not been